During a policy dialogue session chaired by Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief executive officer Norman Chan, attendees were asked three questions at the start and end of the session: 1.Do you consider current policy reform measures to be adequate? 2.Is this the right timing for reforms? 3.What is your outlook for Asian economies in 2012?

 

The most popular response to the first question (Do you consider current policy reform measures to be adequate?) was “insufficient”, selected by 37 percent of attendees, rising to 39.8 percent when the same question was asked at the end of the session. The second most popular response was “too onerous” when the question was asked at the start of the session but “about right” by the end of the session. “Too onerous” was selected by 27.9 percent of delegates at the start of the session and 21.9 percent at the end. “About right” was selected by 23.3 percent of attendees at the start of the session and 30.1 percent at the end. “No comment” was selected by 11.8 percent at the start and 8.2 percent by the end of the session.

 

Apart from the content of the discussion – the panel included Yao Gang, vice- chairman of the China Securities and Regulatory Commission (CSRC); Takehiko Nakao, vice-minister of finance for international affairs with Japan’s ministry of finance; U.K. Sinha, chairman of the Securities and Exchange Board of India; and Sangche Lee, commissioner of Korea’s Financial Services Commission – one other factor behind the different scores at the start and the end of the session was attendees returning from a coffee break following the preceding plenary session, missing out on the first vote.

 

The most popular response to the second question (Is this the right timing for reforms?) was “yes” (selected by 80 percent of attendees at the start of the session, rising to 85.9 percent by the end), “no” (14.5 percent declining to 11.1 percent) and “don’t know” (5.6 percent declining to 3.1 percent).

 

“Optimistic” was the leading response to the third question (What is your outlook for Asian economy in 2012?), selected by 36.1 percent of attendees at the start, rising to 42.1 percent by the end of the session. Roughly a third of delegates (34.3 percent at the start, 32.3 percent by the end) selected “neutral” while less than a third (29.6 percent declining to 25.5 percent) chose “pessimistic”.

                                                                 

Attendees of a panel discussion on global investment opportunities chaired by Li & Fung chairman, Victor Fung, were asked: Which region/sector represents the best short term investment prospect, over the next one to two years? Almost half of attendees (47.2 percent) selected China, with Southeast Asia (22.9 percent) the second most popular of the five possible responses, followed by the US (16 percent), India (7.9 percent) and Western Europe (6.1 percent).

 

The leading sector among the five options included was healthcare (32.2 percent), followed by green industries/environment (26.1 percent), TMT or telecoms, media and technology (20.5 percent), real estate (11.7 percent) and financial services (9.6 percent).

 

Attendees of a panel discussion on China opportunities chaired by Hang Lung Properties chairman Ronnie Chan were asked: 1. What is your prediction for (China’s) GDP growth in 2012? 2. What is the greatest risk to China’s economy? 3. When do you think the renminbi might be fully convertible?

 

Almost half of the delegates (43.3 percent) selected eight percent as the leading response to the first question, followed by seven percent (25.8 percent of attendees), nine percent (16.7 percent), six percent or less (7.9 percent) and over 10 percent (6.3 percent).

 

A third of attendees (33.3 percent) selected a decline in exports as the biggest risk to China’s growth followed by a recurrence of the global financial crisis (20 percent), social and political instability (18.5 percent), a collapse in the property market (17.3 percent) and hyperinflation (10.9 percent of attendees).

 

Within 10 years was the leading response (selected by 42.3 percent of attendees) to the question on renminbi convertibility, followed by within five years (31.8 percent), over 10 years (21.9 percent) and within two years (4.1 percent).

 

Attendees of a panel discussion on sustainable growth chaired by Chandran Nair, founder and CEO of the Global Institute for Tomorrow, were asked 1.What is your understanding of sustainable growth? 2. Are advances in eco-friendly technologies going to overcome the resource scarcity challenge and minimize externalities? 3. At heart of the idea of sustainability is the idea of less is more, as companies seek growth (more) can they ever be sustainable?

 

Almost half (45.1 percent) of attendees viewed sustainable growth as meaning maintaining economic growth while managing its environmental impact; while 27.8 percent believe that sustainable growth means that growth is constrained, taking resource limits and externalities into consideration; 22 percent believed that sustainable growth means that economic activity is subservient to maintaining resource vitality and 5.1 percent viewed sustainable growth as an oxymoron.

 

Almost two-thirds (62.2 percent) believe that regulations to constrain excessive consumption are required to drive the adoption of eco-friendly technologies, 25.8 percent selected “Advanced eco-technologies cannot cope with growth in energy and raw material demands” while 12 percent believe that eco-technologies promoted by the private sector are the clear solution.

 

There was more diversity in responses to the third question with 42.7 percent of attendees choosing a response stating that companies “should only seek to be more efficient”, followed by 28.1 percent selecting the “yes” response (that companies can be sustainable), 8.9 percent “no” and 20.4 percent selecting “only governments can set the sustainability agenda”.