The roadmap passed at the Third Plenum has put China in the right direction, according to Alan Oster, group chief economist of National Australia Bank (NAB).
"My general view is that it sends a message on where the country wants to be, and shows the confidence of the government on the way they are going," he says adding, "The clients I talked to said things were better than they thought, outside the property sector," the economist continues. "Internal demand will be strong. So I know when I get back to Australia, I need to revise my China GDP number."
NAB forecasts China's GDP to expand 7.5% this year and 7.2% in 2014. "A 7% -7.5% growth can generate much demand for commodities which is what Australia's interest lies," Oster comments, "so the China story makes me relax".
The trade between China and Australia is dominated by iron ore, but with China's expansion of African mines, more supply will come around. Thus, liquefied natural gas (LNG) is getting more crucial, the economist says. China will be very important to Australia not merely in terms of sales, but also the price, Oster adds.
Commenting on the liberalization and currency, Oster says the process will be very slow because the regulators are concerned the currency might rise steeply and cause problems. "The currency issue will make the locals less competitive, and [Chinese people will be] more inclined to buy imported products.
NAB predicts the ratio of renminbi to US dollar to reach 6.07 in December 2013, 6.05 in March 2014, 6.03 in September 2014 and 6.00 in December 2014, which are "cautious projections", Oster says.