Crime and detective novels are what Edwin Chan enjoys reading on weekends. English mystery writer Agatha Christie is at the top of his list of favourite authors. “Reading detective stories helps in analyzing the markets,” says the managing director and head of Asian credit research at UBS. “It tunes your mind to keep thinking and looking.”

But unlike Hercule Poirot, the most famous fictional Belgian detective created by Christie who said “it is the brain, the little gray cells on which one must rely. One must seek the truth within – not without”, Chan also finds answers by seeking the views of investors.

It is one reason that for the seventh year in a row, Chan is The Asset Benchmark Research’s top-ranked fixed income analyst/strategist in the Asian G3 market. “I enjoy meeting investors and it is an important part of my job,” he says. “We not only offer trade ideas but we also listen to investors; research cannot be conducted in a black box.”

Chan spends 90 days on average each year on the road, mostly meeting with investors in Europe, the US as well as around the region. “As a credit strategist, it is very important to stay in touch with what is happening on the ground,” he adds. “You don’t strategize your trades without understanding the underlying fundamentals of those trades.”

Maintaining a robust approach to credit research and staying relevant are also vital. “We have tried different products, themes and formats,” he offers. “We keep evolving.”

For example, his team of five credit analysts published 10 trade ideas in June on the outlook for the second half of the year. They cover a wide range of subjects. “Basically they cover most facets of Asia dollar bonds,” he relates. “From high grade, high yield, sovereign trade to bank trade, corporate trade, property trade, non-property trade, geographic trade, capital structure and so on.”

They address the needs of different investors. “Investors have different preferences and mandates; some look for long-term return in asset allocation; some went in for a flip. Some investment funds insist on ratings; others could be more flexible. You need to know which bonds suit which investor base,” he relates. Year-to-date this year, Chan is pleased that they are generating positive excess return.

In a rising interest rate environment where many anticipate what’s up ahead, Chan continues to see opportunity in Asia’s bond market. “The securities market is not just debt and equity; it is a continuum of risks from US treasuries on the one side to the most risky assets – closer to the equity end of the spectrum. There are a lot in between: US investment grade, US high yield, emerging markets bonds, different regions and convertible bonds.”

Asia’s bond market, at US$550 billion, ex-Japan and Australia, is also relatively small when compared with US treasuries (US$12 trillion) or the US investment grade market (US$6 trillion).

Global investors do not own a lot of emerging markets’ bonds in the first place, he says. “Longer term, if these investors are serious about allocating money in the emerging market asset class, the flow of money should be in – not out – because they do not own it in the first place.”

As a credit analyst, Chan believes his job is to help investors handle uncertainty. “We do not have a crystal ball,” he points out. “But we will come up with an analysis that helps to create a path or a likely scenario of the future”, not perhaps unlike Poirot unravelling the plot in an Agatha Christie mystery.