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Diverging global monetary policy to create opportunities in 2015
Diverging global monetary policy will have an impact on every asset class, but poses interesting and diverse opportunities for proactive investors, according to the 2015 global market outlook of State Street Global Advisors (SSGA).
The Asset 10 Dec 2014

Diverging global monetary policy will have an impact on every asset class, but poses interesting and diverse opportunities for proactive investors, according to the 2015 global market outlook of State Street Global Advisors (SSGA).

 

"At SSA, we have identified what we believe will be important themes to consider through 2015: continuing divergence in the developed economies, the impact of reform in the developing economies and the pockets of opportunity that still exist in challenged macro environments," said Kevin Anderson, head of investments for the firm in the Asia-Pacific region.

 

SSGA's 2015 global market outlook identifies five main areas driving the coming year's opportunities:

 

Fortune favours riskier assets

 

* Improving economic and earnings environments bring opportunities, even in expensive markets. While the US appears fully valued, short-term momentum continues to favour dollar assets and even modest earnings increases will be supportive to US equity prices. At current valuations Asian and European markets offer an attractive entry point for long-term investors looking for greater upside potential.

 

* Divergent economic and monetary policy outlooks favour investors that adopt active strategies to harvest the most compelling opportunities.

 

* ETFs warrant consideration for efficient exposure to different market segments.

 

We (still) live in a volatile world

 

* Despite the opportunities that still exist, investing in equities could be risky in 2015, due to the potential for increased volatility.

 

* As advanced economies follow increasingly divergent paths with their monetary policy, which we believe may give rise to increased volatility into 2015, investors need to be armed with downside protection strategies to ensure they appropriately protect their portfolios.

 

Reform takes centre stage in EMs

 

* 2014 was a year characterized by several key elections; in Asia, notably in India and Indonesia. A hot topic for the emerging market economies in 2015 is reform. Emerging markets rallied due to the possibility of reform during elections across India, Indonesia and Brazil in 2014 and further support for reforms is expected going forward.

 

* Investors may want to consider taking an active investment approach, tilt allocations toward reformers and consider emerging market small caps for their domestic focus and dynamic growth potential.

 

* Key reformers to watch out for in Asia in 2015 are (i) the ongoing broad reform agenda in China which should impact positively on consumer trends, the opening of the capital accounts, interest rate liberalization and social security programmes; and (ii) India reforms should ease price distortion, reduce bureaucracy and loosen infrastructure bottlenecks.

 

Fixed income and currency - a tight squeeze in the developed world

 

* The US and the UK will begin tightening fiscal policy next year while the European Central Bank, China and Japan continue to stimulate growth.

 

* Investors can expect the US yield curve to flatten further as a rise in short-term rates is offset by overseas demand for the US dollar and longer-dated treasuries.

 

Cautiously optimistic on EMEA

 

* The International Monetary Fund downgraded the prospects for Germany, France and Italy in 2015 and doubled the probability, to 38 percent, that the Eurozone will re-enter a recession within the next six months.

 

* European countries that have reformed in recent years can be an opportunity for investors looking for dividend yield and looking to profit from currency movements.

 

"Looking specifically at growth, SSGA expects the US economy will likely accelerate to three percent," said Rick Lacaille, global chief investment officer at SSGA. "The Eurozone should also grow, although only slightly faster than in 2014. In developing markets, the biggest influence, China, should grow by about seven percent, while those countries that pursue reform agendas offer the best potential."

 

"Despite 2014 being marked as the year of recovery, very few countries witnessed this, with the exception of the US, which demonstrated a real resilience to market conditions and rising geopolitical tension," continued Lacaille.

 

"Nonetheless, investors must be mindful of increased volatility in equity markets as a result of divergent global monetary policies. An intelligent assessment of the divergent environment and its risks and opportunities will reward the astute investor in 2015."

 

 

 

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