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Worries on Greek-led volatility spread in global markets
Following its national elections, investors are being warned to expect “Greek-led volatility” for six months while the country’s exit from the Eurozone is anticipated. Anti-austerity party Syriza has emerged as the victor and has agreed to form a government with the rightwing anti-bailout independent Greeks.
The Asset 27 Jan 2015

Following its national elections, investors are being warned to expect "Greek-led volatility" for six months while the country's exit from the Eurozone is anticipated. Anti-austerity party Syriza has emerged as the victor and has agreed to form a government with the rightwing anti-bailout independent Greeks.

 

Even as speculations are rife on what will happen next, Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on Greece's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default ratings (IDR) to negative from stable and affirmed the IDRs at 'B'. The issue ratings on Greece's senior unsecured foreign and local currency bonds have been affirmed at 'B'. The short-term foreign currency IDR has been affirmed at 'B' and the country ceiling at 'BB'.

 

Tom Elliott, international investment strategist at deVere Group, commented: "Investors can expect Greek-led market volatility for at least six months until a Syriza-led government is better understood. The euro will weaken - perhaps to parity with the dollar - over the next six months as investors seek 'safe havens' as other populist parties in the Eurozone are likely to rise in the opinion polls and echo Syriza with their demands to end austerity. The sliding euro will further boost exporters who got a leg-up from last week's shock and awe quantitative easing package unveiled by the ECB. Indeed, one of the ironies of the Euro crisis is that the more that Greece looks likely to cause problems for the single currency, the more Germany and the core economies benefit from resulting Euro weakness."

 

Toby Nangle, head of multi-asset allocation, Threadneedle Investments, noted: "The Syriza-led Greek government and the troika (the EC, ECB and IMF) go into negotiations somewhat boxed-in by their previous declarations. Syriza are committed to anti-austerity, and the troika cannot be seen as offering a weaker hand to parties less favourable to their approach (since this increases the likelihood of other electorates voting against the 'medicine'). Neither party to the negotiation wants Greece's exit from the eurozone but these negotiating constraints increase the probability that this occurs by accident over the next couple of years. In addition, following the lack of Eurozone contagion associated with the imposition of capital controls in Cyprus, the cost of having a member dis-integrated from the Eurozone (at least temporarily) will appear lower. And because of this the likelihood of a 'Grexit' is now higher."

 

Elliott said that while it is early days and the story is just beginning, "history teaches us that what is happening in Greece politically will have far-reaching effects on the capital markets and will impact investor returns. The changing political landscape in Greece, and across Europe, is presenting numerous risks and opportunities for investors globally. As such, the shifting dynamics must be monitored carefully to be able to benefit from these opportunities and to mitigate the avoidable risks."

 

 

 

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