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Potential for economic, political contagion, post-Greek elections
We should be alive to the potential for contagion – both politically and economically. However, there has so far been little evidence that investors are overly concerned about potential knock-on effects outside Greek markets.
Juan Nevado 28 Jan 2015
 
   

The recent Greek general election has been won by left-wing anti-austerity party, Syriza. Although Syriza has not won an absolute majority, it has announced the formation of a new anti-austerity coalition government with the right-wing party Greek Independents. This has reignited concerns about the potential for Greece to default on its debts, and the country's future in the euro.

 

The result itself had been broadly expected on the back of a number of polls carried out in recent weeks, and this may be part of the explanation as to why global financial markets movements so far hardly suggest that investors are panicking or caught by surprise. There has already been much speculation and analysis on the potential implications. However, it remains to be seen what action the new government will take to address Greece's economic problems.

 

Importantly, while Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras has expressed the intention to renegotiate the terms of Greece's bailout, he has been clear that the party does not want Greece to leave the euro. In any event, it is very difficult to try and assess how any state could exit the single currency - there is no legal mechanism for doing so - let alone the impact this would have all on sorts of other factors. Eurozone finance ministers have said they are ready to engage with the new Greek government, and that debt restructuring can be up for discussion, but ultimately the terms of the bailout must be met.

 

Our view is that, while this is of course a significant development for Greece, the Greek economy is one small part of the much wider global economy. Therefore, we do not feel this is an issue on which we should change our broader global growth outlook - there are a great many other factors on which to base that assessment. Nevertheless, we should be alive to the potential for contagion - both politically and economically. However, there has so far been little evidence that investors are overly concerned about potential knock-on effects outside Greek markets.

 

During previous stages of Greek political instability, such as in 2011-2012, we saw broad-based declines across European - and wider - financial markets. This time, while Greek equities have sold-off sharply and Greek bond yields risen, the response so far in markets outside of Greece has been muted. Most European equity markets are in fact higher in mid-morning trading on January 26. Euro currency has also rebounded that day from the declines seen last week on the back of the Swiss National Bank and European Central Bank (ECB) announcements of removing the Swiss franc-euro peg and quantitative easing, respectively. It was a similar picture last month: Greek markets experienced high levels of volatility following polls that indicated Syriza's rising popularity, but broader global markets barely seemed to notice.

 

So, in this sense, the market response (or lack of it) to developments in Greece is encouraging for global multi-asset funds like ours, which have meaningful European exposure (but no specific Greece exposure). It shows that, despite ongoing uncertainty, investors have been somewhat reassured by indications of genuine fundamental improvement for many European countries (both peripheral and core) since the last Eurozone financial crisis in 2011. This, combined with the results of the asset quality review (which showed most Eurozone banks to be considerably more stable), and last week's announcement from the ECB of a huge quantitative easing programme, seems to have reassured investors. They appear to believe that the Eurozone, as a whole, is now better placed to cope with economic problems or political turmoil in any one of its member states.

 

Therefore, we remain comfortable with our current portfolio positioning and have not made any changes in response to developments in Greece recently. That said, we remain watchful for the potential for this situation to once more have a knock-on effect in other parts of Europe - or the rest of the world. Without being able to predict which future scenarios are likely to play out for Greece, and certainly not the markets' reaction, we can say it is likely that there is potential for significant volatility, the knock-on effects of which could present compelling opportunities in other markets. This is because we should not automatically expect domestic issues in Greece to have a long-term impact on other countries, so long as fundamentals in those countries remain supportive.

 

Juan Nevado is the portfolio manager at M&G multi asset team

 

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