The next twelve months could turn out to be a pivotal year for China’s capital markets, the largest in the Asia-Pacific and the world’s third largest bond market. The proposed inclusion of Chinese yuan bonds in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index, phased in over a 20-month period starting in April 2019, could further accelerate the participation of foreign investors.
Ahead of the index inclusion, international asset owners and managers have stepped up their activity. Tradeweb, the electronic trading venue linked to Bond Connect, recorded a healthy boost to trade levels, with an uplift of over 40% in the average daily volume, which accrued to US$0.5 billion each day for the 12-month duration end of December 2018. The number of approved overseas institutional investors on Bond Connect reached 503 at the end of 2018, a 74% increase from the 288 global institutional investors registered at the end of Q1 2018.
While there is much reason for optimism, the integration of China’s capital markets within the global financial system comes at a particularly challenging time. The ongoing China-US trade war has added to market uncertainty. The efforts by China to de-risk its financial system (especially in pursuing deleveraging) as it transitions away from fixed asset investment face headwinds. The slower global growth, with the World Bank cutting its forecast to 2.9% in 2019, is keeping investors on their toes and softens sentiment.
These short-term worries, however, do not detract from the longer-term expectation that once these issues are addressed, the region is on track to become one the foremost centres of economic activity in the coming two decades. This also means that capital markets will become an integral part of financing among corporates operating in this region while presenting tantalizing opportunities for investors looking at return and diversification.
As a share of G3 primary issuance, Chinese issuers now account for 60% of activity year-on-year. A study published in January 2019 by the Global Financial Markets Association notes that even based on relatively conservative assumptions, capital markets located in the Asia-Pacific region are set to experience the most rapid growth over the coming decade. Furthermore, Asia’s share of global capital markets activity will rise to just under half over the next 20 years from around one-third today. Much of what’s behind the region’s rise is driven by China, which accounts for 40% of Asian capital markets activity. As a share of G3 primary issuance, Chinese issuers now account for 60% of activity year-on-year.
作为亚太地区最大、世界第三的债券市场,未来一年将是中国资本市场关键的一年。自2019年4月起,中国债券将于20个月内逐步纳入彭博巴克莱全球综合指数,此举将吸引更多境外投资者。
在纳入指数之前,国际资产所有者和管理者已开始加大动作。与债券通相连的电子交易平台Tradeweb显示,交易额出现良性大幅增长。截至2018年12月31日止12个月期间,日累计交易额达到5亿美元,日均交易额增幅超过40%。截至2018年12月31日,债券通认可的海外机构投资者数量达503名,较2018年第一季度末(288名全球机构投资者)增加74%。
尽管有很多积极信号,中国资本市场融入全球金融体系进程仍面临挑战:持续的中美贸易战加剧了市场不确定性;在固定资产投资转向的同时,中国降低金融体系风险(尤其是去杠杆化)的举措遭遇逆风;全球经济增长放缓,世界银行将2019年经济增长预期下调至2.9%,投资者继续保持警惕,市场信心减弱。
但这些短期的隐忧,丝毫未削弱市场对亚洲地区的长期预期,一旦这些问题得以解决,亚洲地区有望在未来二十年内成为最重要的经济活动中心之一。这也意味着资本市场将成为亚洲企业融资的重要一环,为寻求回报和多样化的投资者提供了诱人的机会。
全球金融市场协会在2019年1月发表研究指出,保守估计,亚太地区资本市场将在未来十年迎来前所未有的高速增长。而在此后20年间,亚洲地区在全球资本市场活动中的份额将从目前的三分之一增长至近一半。中国占亚洲资本市场活动的40%,为亚太地区崛起贡献了巨大动力。中国发行人在G3债券初次发行中所占比重同比增长60%。
As our Event Partner you have the opportunity to create new industry connections and generate new business opportunities. You meet relevant decision makers, professionals and finance industry leaders.
成为我们的合作伙伴,您将有机会与相关决策者、专业人士及金融行业领导者会面,进而拓展业内关系和建立业务机会。