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The Samurai market is red hot
In his latest column, Jonathan Rogers, considers a number of favourable factors suggesting the recent upsurge in the Samurai bond market has some way to go
Jonathan Rogers 21 Aug 2018

So, the Samurai bond market is hot again, hotter than it's been since the cataclysmic Global Financial Crisis a decade ago.

Perhaps this is not so surprising viewed in the context of the normalisation of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, a benign dynamic in the dollar/yen basis swap and the perception among global investors that the yen is set to continue its appreciation trend. Any dispassionate analysis of market conditions would have led neutral observers to conclude it was just a matter of time when the cycle began to turn.

It could be said that the Samurai market has gone from the state of despair of recent years to something resembling euphoria. The greatest market savagery was around three years ago, when deeply negative Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields forced an institutional buyers' strike. Sentiment has moved on since those dark days, with Primary Samurai issuance this year running in excess of last year's JPY1.1 trillion total and is set to surpass that value by a considerable margin.

It might be considered somewhat ironic that Samurai issuance is hitting levels in 2018 not seen for around 10 years. This phenomenon is set against the backdrop of rising JGB yields, buoyed by speculation that the quantitative easing programme, a policy first initiated by Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda three years ago, might be tapered back.

However, from an issuer's point of view, the basis swap, at around plus 40bp at five years has not been this benign for many years. It therefore makes sense to issue under a scenario of ample onshore liquidity and pent-up demand from offshore investors who have been starved of the Samurai product in recent years.

There is some weight behind suggestions that investors should consider hedging against rising JGB yields. If a new issue is correctly priced and, for foreign investors, the foreign exchange does the trick, hedging may be a lesser consideration for those looking to flip new issuance.

After losing 13% against the greenback last year, the yen has appreciated by around 1.6% against the dollar this year and looks due for an extended run, particularly given President Donald Trump's trade war rhetoric.

If the yen appreciation story holds true, the Samurai issuance dynamic will resemble that of Dim Sum bonds around five years ago, when the sustained rise of the Chinese renminbi was regarded as a given by market players and factored into their thinking.

And I believe governor Kuroda's whisperings of the full withdrawal of QE are so much smoke, especially when considering Japan's inability to hit the BoJ's stated inflation target of 2%, notwithstanding its strong GDP growth of late and low unemployment rate.

In that sense, the recent sell-off in JGBs is probably overdone, and a flat yield on the 10-year JGB, from its recent sell-off to the 0.1% area looks reasonable. That factor alone would be more reason to buy any new Samurais that are up for sale.

The Republic of the Philippines' recent blockbuster US$1.3 billion-equivalent trade, which represents the biggest Samurai yet brought to the market, demonstrates just what issuers can achieve at the moment in the super-charged Samurai market.

Long tranches had to be abandoned - it's up to another issuer to test that part of the curve, which in these conditions, should be a cinch.

In summation, for issuers, the Samurai market is as good as it gets right now. And for investors, the decent spreads on offer in primary deals, plus positive FX price action, suggest the red-hot nature of this market will not cool in the immediate future.

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