In 2017 Saxo Bank's Steen Jakobsen spooked Bitcoin investors and followers with his prediction that the cryptocurrency would collapse in 2018. And while his excessive prediction of a high of US$60,000 followed by a total capitulation never quite materialized, he at least got the trend right. Only time will tell how far the downward trend drops.
The Asset recently met the man in person as the Saxo Bank chief economist and chief investment officer passed through Singapore on his Australian and Asian swing, to drill into his so-called Outrageous Predictions for 2019.
And while Jakobsen's forecasts are a tongue-in-cheek collection of events and incidences that are unlikely to materialize, the point is to provoke debate and expand awareness of what just might go wrong in 2019.
The prominent theme in his prognostications for the coming year is "enough is enough". According to Jakobsen the world is running on empty and will have to wake up and start creating reforms, not because it wants to but because it has to.
The Saxo man claims the signs are everywhere. Valuations are overstretched, political shifts are both unexpected and sudden, and then there's Donald Trump.
Looking into the year ahead he says the best we can imagine for financial markets is rough sailing, but his worst fear is the perfect storm could show up.
Getting back to the refrain underlying 'Saxo's 2019 Outrageous Predictions', Jakobsen points to one topic that may not on the surface appear provocative: to start measuring productivity. This transformation could be a significant game changer across multiple industries and sectors
"Instead of publications going overboard with the ubiquitous lists of the wealthiest individuals and families, we should instead be looking at lists of the most productive," says Jakobsen.
Efficiency the new wealth
"We should be printing and appreciating lists of the most productive individuals because the most productive are the ones that change the future. So, if you focus on the most productive, you also create role models in society, which is about changing the dynamics," he adds.
So how does Asia stack up in terms of productivity in the Saxo man's eyes? Jakobsen says while the region has the huge benefit and advantage of demographics, the growth is mainly industrial growth, and so productivity must begin to take precedence.
"I think China's realizing that to maintain a growth rate, which is above the western world, for sure, they need to release a new productivity, and that can only come through technology and education," Jakobsen says. When quizzed on China's challenge of maintaining social order while trying to achieve greater efficiency he says productivity is also part of that solution because if you improve productivity, you can actually create competitiveness, and if you improve competitiveness, you create good jobs.
Jakobsen conveniently uses the example of Chinese car maker Geely, the major shareholder in Saxo Bank. "They are probably one of the best production companies, not only in China, but in the world in terms of efficiency," Jakobsen says.
For the full list of Saxo's 2019 Outrageous Predictions, click here. These do not in any way represent the official Saxo Bank outlook or forecast but read them anyway – and enjoy.
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